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一 |       日前,经国务院批复同意印发的《扩大消费“十五五”规划》提出,要“坚持扩大内需这个战略基点”“更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用”,这表明消费作为国民经济基础、推动经济增长重要引擎的作用更加突出,也反映出当前我国经济增长动力机制从投资和出口驱动向内需消费主导的深刻转型。  对消费的重视有着深刻的宏观背景与现实紧迫性。

二 |     The World Health Organization (WHO) has revealed that the new BA.2.75 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant of COVID has been detected in India.,"In Europe and America, BA.4 and BA.5 are driving waves. In countries like India, a new sub-lineage of BA.2.75 has also been detected, which we're following," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press briefing on Wednesday.,He said that new COVID cases reported worldwide have spiked by nearly 30 percent.,Experts say the BA.2.75 variant includes new mutations in the spike protein, in addition to mutations that are already present in the Omicron variant.,This allows it to evade several antibodies and can infect people who have been vaccinated or infected previously. The detection of BA.2.75 has led scientists across the globe to dive deep into the research to learn more about the new variant and the possibility of another COVID wave.,In India, the BA.5 sub-variant has been detected in the states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Telangana, Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat, and the Ladakh union territory as well.,WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan said in a video posted on Twitter that there has been an emergence of a sub-variant called the BA.2.75, "first reported from India and then from about 10 other countries.",Swaminathan said there are still limited sequences available of the sub-variant to analyze, "but this sub-variant seems to have a few mutations on the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein. So obviously, that's a key part of the virus that attaches itself to the human receptor.","So we have to watch that. It's still too early to know if this sub-variant has properties of additional immune evasion or indeed of being more clinically severe. We don't know that," she added.,Last week, Dr. Shay Fleishon, an Israeli scientist, claimed that a new coronavirus variant had hit 10 Indian states and sparked concerns of a fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.,The current daily positive test rate is, however, is around 4.32 percent, down from around 16-17 percent in January 2022, the peak of the first Omicron wave.。当前全球贸易保护主义抬头,外需不确定性明显增加,依靠外部市场拉动增长的空间受到挤压,必须立足国内需求掌握发展主动权。我国已进入工业化、城镇化中后期,大规模基建投资边际效用递减,而居民消费率较发达经济体仍有差距,消费潜力尚未充分释放。数据显示,“十四五”时期最终消费支出对经济增长的平均贡献率达58.8%,2025年社会消费品零售总额已突破50万亿元,消费的基础性地位已具现实支撑,但仍面临供强需弱、社保预期不稳等制约,需在“十五五”时期通过专项规划系统破局。  《规划》提出,到2030年社会消费品零售总额达到60万亿元左右,居民消费率明显提高,消费对经济增长的拉动作用进一步增强,以量化目标锚定消费的市场底盘。在任务层面,首次将促进服务消费提质惠民列为六大重点任务之首,聚焦养老、托育、文旅、健康等短板领域,顺应消费结构从商品为主向商品服务并重升级的规律;同时围绕提升消费能力、优化消费环境、完善制度机制等维度部署28条举措,包括清理汽车、住房等领域不合理限制、落实带薪休假、健全社保兜底等,构建起“增收—保障—供给—制度”的长效机制。《规划》设置9个专栏细化落地,标志着消费基础性作用有了实实在在的抓手。  超大规模市场是我国经济发展的重要优势。更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用,关键在于跳出短期思维,打好需求侧增收减负与供给侧提质适配的组合拳。在需求侧,要夯实居民消费能力根基,推动居民收入增长与经济增长同步,健全工资合理增长机制,增加财产性收入渠道,同时通过优化教育、医疗、养老等公共服务供给降低预防性储蓄动机,让居民能消费、敢消费。

三 | 在供给侧,要以服务消费扩容和业态创新匹配升级需求,推动“人工智能+消费”、绿色消费等新场景供给,以高标准质量体系倒逼商品服务升级,解决供需错配导致的消费外流与意愿不足。在制度侧,需加快清理抑制消费的不合理限制,完善财政金融协同支持机制,落实休假制度保障消费时间,推动消费与投资良性互动,使有效投资更多投向消费基础设施与民生短板。  让消费真正发挥作用,考验的是宏观政策的定力与耐心。《规划》从短期刺激托底转向深耕收入分配、社会保障与制度环境,旨在换取经济长周期的稳步增长。随着《规划》的深入实施,一个供需互促、城乡互补、内外联通的强大国内市场必将加速形成,为中国式现代化注入源源不断的内生动力。(本文来源:经济日报 作者:金观平)。

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Published on:12:09:47


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